The scenario-based variations and causes of future surface soil moisture across China in the twenty-first century

Abstract Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a key factor for water and heat exchanges between land surface the atmosphere. It also important to resources, agriculture, ecosystems. In backdrop of global warming, SSM variations potential causes are not well-known at regional scales. Based on (SM) data from GLDAS-Noah 16 climate models (GCMs) selected 25 GCMs in CMIP5, we analyzed spatial distribution temporal changes China quantified fractional contributions four meteorological factors variations. The have same direction historic trends during 1981–2005 as those GLDAS which were further used calibrate simulated by GCMs. calibration results GCMs, future SSMs nine regions mainland under Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change emission scenarios. No significant identified across most RCP2.6 scenario. However, there general wetting tendency arid drying humid all scenarios except RCP2.6. general, higher temperature raises, more grids with increase or decrease SSM. These findings contradicted prevailing view that wet get wetter dry drier. Attribution analysis indicates precipitation acts major driver contributes up 43.4% China. provide new insights into response warming scientific basis mitigation adaptation works related future.